tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74366537034955837132024-03-13T14:28:26.391+02:00British Business Club in UkraineThe British Business Club in Ukraine(BBCU) is a business. The business operates from three divisions: BBCU Business Club, BBCU Business Centre, and BBCU Teaching Centre. Membership of the BBCU is open to both British and Ukrainian individuals and companies in Ukraine. The BBCU is managed by British expats living and working in Kyiv. See our web site: www.bbcu.com.uaGerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.comBlogger402125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-84034625410115333082015-09-11T21:13:00.001+03:002015-09-11T21:13:13.318+03:00Follow me........If anyone wants to continue reading my personal blog, it is here:<br />
<a href="http://geraldbowers.blogspot.com.cy/">http://geraldbowers.blogspot.com.cy/</a><br />
<br />
I will concentrate on running our business in Cyprus:<br />
Cyprus Lifestyle Media<br />
<a href="http://www.cypruslifestylemagazine.com/">http://www.cypruslifestylemagazine.com/</a><br />
<br />
and Cyprus Universal Services<br />
<a href="http://www.cyprusuniversal.com/417867662">http://www.cyprusuniversal.com/417867662</a><br />
<br />
<br />Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-72169062731590629522015-09-03T15:23:00.001+03:002015-09-03T15:23:35.188+03:00British Business Club in Ukraine (BBCU) - Change of Ownership<br /><div class="MsoNormal">
This is my last blog for the <a href="http://www.bbcu.com.ua/">BBCU.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Having moved to Cyprus on a permanent basis and with plans
to return to the UK later, I decided that the BBCU needed a new owner.<o:p></o:p></div>
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It has been an interesting journey for me and the BBCU
during the past 12 years. The BBCU started life as a networking club where we
brought together enthusiastic business minded people every month to share
information about developments in Ukraine. We had some great speakers and
witnessed interesting presentations from both British and Ukrainian people. Our
club membership started to grow. Some well-known politicians and business
leaders both British and Ukrainian were among our speakers. Although we always
tried to choose a different hotel for each monthly event, perhaps the best
meetings we had were thanks to the generosity of the team at INTER TV. The roof
top location at their offices on Turhenievska Street proved to be a popular meeting
place.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The boom years of 2002 to 2009 in Ukraine were exciting
times for all involved. The property sector was most interesting when prices
for residential property become more expensive than in Western Europe and rental
prices for commercial property were crazy.<o:p></o:p></div>
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We branched out and offered teaching and training services,
(those first Saturday morning Speaking Club meetings were very well attended).
At one stage we had 16 teachers serving our members and clients around Kyiv and
we quickly developed a good reputation with many businesses. We also provided a
special VIP one-to-one English teaching service to business leaders and professionals
which included over the years a select few Ukraine Government Ministers. The
majority of these people now speak near perfect English. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Later we provided outsourcing services for small to medium
size foreign businesses in Ukraine which included accounting, banking, HR admin
and general support to help take away the headache of the over burdensome ‘Ukraine
paperwork system’. Unfortunately, the
country still has a long way to go to lift the burden of what can only be
described as ‘aggressive demand’ from most government agencies/departments. Private
sector businesses still employ accountants who spend most of their time
providing information to meet government demands.<o:p></o:p></div>
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We also played an active part in promoting golf to Ukraine
and helping to introduce ‘pay as you play’ with our partnership with Royal Kyiv
Golf Club. Our golf days for beginners were entertaining and great fun.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The downturn in the economy of Ukraine as a result of events
since late 2013 and the whole of 2014 led to many businesses struggling to
survive. The year 2015 has been a very difficult year for Ukraine and I
sincerely hope that the situation improves during 2016.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Therefore I am happy to announce that the BBCU now has a new
owner. He is a long time British expat who has been living and working in
Ukraine for many years and has various business interests in Ukraine. He will
be making his own announcements along with a re-launch of the BBCU later in
2015.<o:p></o:p></div>
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I wish him the very best.<o:p></o:p></div>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-72569777977465420802015-05-30T23:58:00.002+03:002015-05-30T23:58:58.680+03:00THE CYPRUS ROUTE for British Citizens<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 18.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">THE CYPRUS ROUTE <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">British Citizens<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Exercise your EU Treaty Rights<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A guide for British
nationals married to Non-EU nationals who intend to enter the UK legally using
EU laws<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A Step-by-Step Guide<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Detailed instructions and advice<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Hyperlinks to important documents <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Application forms explained<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Cyprus Route is a 50
page six step guide for British citizens who would like to exercise their
European Union treaty rights under EU law. It explains how a British citizen
can take advantage of these laws and go to live for a period of time in another
EU country with their Non-EU spouse and then enter the UK legally avoiding the
restrictive rules imposed by the British government against its own people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In addition to the six detailed steps the guide
contains helpful information about Cyprus including:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Temporary
Accommodation<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Property Rental<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Cities in Cyprus<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Employment
Opportunities<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Living Expenses<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Travel &
Transport<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Internet<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Eating Out<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Languages<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">News in English<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Healthcare &
Medical Services<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Children &
Schools<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Supermarkets<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Banks<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Insurance<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Religion<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">British Sovereign
Base Area<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">‘The Cyprus Problem<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Available now on-line. Only
EUR 19.00<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Order your copy today via<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="mailto:cyprusuniversal@gmx.com">cyprusuniversal@gmx.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">or visit <a href="http://www.cyprusuniversal.com/">www.cyprusuniversal.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-20980758135538451042015-05-23T02:56:00.002+03:002015-05-23T02:56:28.690+03:00The Cyprus Route - How British Citizens and their Non-EU Families can return to the UK<div class="MsoNormal">
The Cyprus Route – (Surinder Singh route) for spouses and
families of British citizens<o:p></o:p></div>
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This is an immigration route, named after the person who
filed a court case, can be used by non-EU family members of British citizens to
secure a UK visa – but under EU law. Many thousands of family members of EEA
citizens, (Non-EU Citizens) are applying using the European law. This is where
they get an EEA Family Permit for 6 months outside the UK and then a 5 year
Residence Card when they return to the UK.<o:p></o:p></div>
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EU citizens enjoy ‘Freedom of Movement’ around the whole of
the EU. An EU citizen can enter the UK together with his/her Non-EU
spouse/family. <o:p></o:p></div>
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What does it mean to be
an EU citizen? <span style="color: #1a181c; mso-bidi-font-family: MyriadPro-Regular; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Any person who holds the nationality of an EU
country is automatically also an EU citizen.
EU citizenship is additional to and does not replace it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1a181c; mso-bidi-font-family: MyriadPro-Regular; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">EU citizenship
gives every EU citizen a number of important rights, including:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1a181c; mso-bidi-font-family: MyriadPro-Regular; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">the </span><b><span style="color: #1a181c; mso-bidi-font-family: MyriadPro-Bold; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">right to move freely around the European Union </span></b><span style="color: #1a181c; mso-bidi-font-family: MyriadPro-Regular; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">and settle anywhere within its territory.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Many people are surprised when they discover that this does
not apply to family members of UK citizens, only to those of EU (non-UK)
citizens. Why? Because there has to be ‘movement’ between the EU member
states. We know that many laws in the EU conflict with British laws.<o:p></o:p></div>
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There is one way around it: the Surinder Singh route. It
allows non-EU family members of British citizens to apply for a UK visa using
the European law, as opposed to applying under the UK Immigration Rules. Let’s
take a most common situation: a spouse of a British citizen. Under the Surinder
Singh route spouses of UK citizens can apply for a Family Permit and/or
Residence Card under the EU law and not under UK Immigration Rules.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Applying under the EU law means no English test and no financial
requirements (The British citizen does not have to prove an income of £18,600
as introduced by the British Government in 2012). Plus an EEA Family Permit (if
coming from outside the UK) is FREE, compared to the £1500 fee for those
applying under the UK Immigration Rules – ILR Visa (Indefinite Leave to Remain)
(fees as at 6 April 2015). Getting a UK Residence Card for 5 years is the
objective and costs only £55.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Using the SS route, there are conditions to meet.<o:p></o:p></div>
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1) A British citizen must go and work in another EU member
country (or be self-employed) before returning to the UK. This is how there is
‘Movement within the EU’. </div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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2) For a minimum period of 3 months but better to stay
longer. It could take up to 6 months.<o:p></o:p></div>
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3) The British citizen’s ‘Centre of life’ must have been
transferred to that other EU member country. There is no exhaustive list to
prove it, but examples are: renting a place to live or buying a property (as
opposed to staying at a hotel), getting a job or setting up a business in that
country.<o:p></o:p></div>
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4) In the case of Non-EU spouses, both UK and non-EU spouse
must have lived together in that EU member country and been married BEFORE
returning to the UK. E.g. a British man already married to a woman from Ukraine
could go to live and work in Cyprus.<o:p></o:p></div>
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5) EU law considers a child to be a 'child' until the age of
20 (i.e. under 21 yo) and not under 18yo as under the Immigration Rules.<o:p></o:p></div>
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6) Parents and grandparents have to be dependent, which
means financially relying on the Sponsor for their essential living
needs. This is very different from the Immigration Rules (i.e. a UK law,
not EU law) which only allow to bring a parent to the UK if he/she requires
long-term day-to-day care and such care is not available in the country of
residence (or not affordable).<o:p></o:p></div>
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7) Dependency under the EU law is that of fact, the reasons
for dependency are not relevant. For example, if a family member can work but
chooses not to and depend on an EEA national instead, this would be acceptable
(in principal).<o:p></o:p></div>
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8) <span style="background: white; color: #3e3e3e; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">The European law
differentiates between<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">‘family members’</span></strong> and<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">‘extended family
members’.</span></strong><span class="apple-converted-space"> The difference is very important!</span> For
example, children or grandchildren under 21 y.o. (not under 18 y.o. as under
the British law) of an EEA national or of his/her spouse,<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><u>so step-children can
qualify as well.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></u>Those who are aged 21yo or older can be considered if they
are dependent.<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Please contact Cyprus Universal Services for ADVICE on how
to proceed further.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-26332575382481436702015-05-21T14:24:00.000+03:002015-05-21T14:24:11.277+03:00British Citizens separated from their families.- VIDEO<div style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, 'lucida grande', sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.3199996948242px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-top: 6px;">
Many British citizens with a spouse from Ukraine or Russia will identify with this video.</div>
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A powerful and moving documentary showing the break-up of families as a result of new British laws introduced in 2012. It is widely known that an EU citizen (Not a British citizen) and their non-EU spouse/family can enter the UK under EU freedom of movement laws. But a British citizen and his/her Non-EU spouse does not have the same rights.</div>
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Gethin Jones has been married to his Russian wife for 17 years and they have two children. His<span class="text_exposed_show" style="display: inline;"> Russian wife Elena is still in Moscow and cannot be reunited with her husband and daughters. They own their own house in Wales and Gethin has his own business but has not reached the required income level set by the British government. (See video 06:22 to 11:56)</span></div>
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Sally Piasecki is a British citizen married to Walter an American citizen. They have been married for 20 years, see their story here.</div>
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<br />The difference between UK and EU law means that a British citizen and their non-EU spouse can live in ANOTHER EU country but not the UK. The Tanik family is now living in Ireland and has made this their ‘Centre of Life’. Although the documentary does not mention this, they are now following what has become known as the Surinder Singh route, where they will claim the right to enter the UK again under EU law (Freedom of Movement).<br />Many British citizens who are married to Non-EU citizens will identify with this documentary.</div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, lucida grande, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><a href="http://www.priceoflovedoc.com/">http://www.priceoflovedoc.com/</a></span></span></div>
</div>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-53797163350588361032015-05-16T13:44:00.003+03:002015-05-16T14:10:49.999+03:00FREE Entry for British Citizens and their families into the UK - PETITIONIt is well known that the UK is a 'target destination' for many people from around the world.<br />
Look at the situation in Northern France where thousands of refugees from many different countries are camped out waiting to try and find a way to get across the English Channel to start a new life in the United Kingdom.<br />
<br />
Rightly, the UK needs to protect its borders and control who enters the country.<br />
EU citizens have the right to enter the UK under 'free movement' rules within the EU area.<br />
As a result of a recent court ruling the UK government was forced to allow anyone holding an EU Residency Card the right to also enter the UK. This includes Non-EU citizens who have a EU spouse or family member.<br />
<br />
During 2014, the UK decided to grant completely FREE access into the UK for citizens from United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar. Which means citizens from these countries can enter the UK with a simple Electronic Visa Waiver (EVW) document. This allows them to visit the UK for up to six months without a Visa.<br />
<br />
An Electronic Visa Waiver is very simple to complete, free of charge and quicker than applying for a visa. There is no requirement to provide biometrics, attend a visa application centre or hand in passports prior to travel. The document is issued immediately via a secure web site and can be obtained online from anywhere in the world for travel to the UK. Travellers from these countries must only complete their EVW on-line at least 48 hours before departure and present a printed copy on departure and again on arrival in the UK.<br />
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WHY HAS THE UK PROVIDED THIS SERVICE? Maybe some would claim it's due to the huge number of rich Arabs buying property in London and becoming the 'big spenders'.<br />
<br />
But an even bigger question needs to be asked: ''Why has this same service not been offered to BRITISH citizens and their families?'' i.e British nationals who are married to Non-EU nationals. Thousands of British people are working and living in many countries around the world on short term and long term employment contracts. Some have their own successful businesses. Many are former members of the British Armed Forces. However, every time they wish to return to the UK, on a short or long term visit, they MUST obtain a visa for their spouse to enter the UK legally.<br />
<br />
The spouse of a British citizen must provide full biometric details to a Visa Application Centre, complete an application form, provide full details of WHY they are traveling to the UK and full details about their British spouse and many other requirements together with a FEE for this so called privilege. Any visa granted after this long process will only be for six months. After six months the whole process has to be started again from the beginning.<br />
<br />
Should the same British citizen together his or her spouse decide to visit another EU country they will automatically be granted a visa for FREE under the EU freedom of movement rules. Even though the British citizen is not actually living in an EU (He or she may be living in Asia, America or China or a Non-EU European country), the Non-EU spouse will be granted a visa under EU rules. This is due to the pure fact that the British national is also an EU passport holder.<br />
<br />
No wonder then, that thousands of British people around the world find it difficult to understand why their own country discriminates against them and their spouse/family each time they want to return to the UK for a holiday or family visit to see relatives. Returning home for a permanent stay is another case, which will also be met with a nightmare of paperwork and procedures and FEES.<br />
<br />
The time has come to stop all this discrimination against British citizens. The British public are not aware that this is going on. The time has come to make them aware and to campaign for changes in UK immigration rules.<br />
<br />
I ask you to support the recent campaign that many of my British friends and I have recently launched to help bring about these changes. 'FREE Entry for British Citizens and Their Families' is a campaign that needs support from the British public.<br />
<br />
PLEASE visit and <a href="https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/free-entry-for-british-citizens-and-their-families-to-the-uk" target="_blank">sign and share our petition here</a><br />
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<span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">.</span></div>
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<br />Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-69673499924608238292015-05-09T13:03:00.000+03:002015-05-09T13:05:50.150+03:00FREE Entry for British Citizens and Their families to the UK<pre class="linkify" id="post-body" style="background: none rgb(248, 246, 247); border-radius: 4px; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: LinotypeUnivers-330Light; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.8571434020996px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-break: normal; word-wrap: break-word;"><div class="MsoNormal">
British citizens are fleeing Ukraine due to the severe
economic situation as a result of the war. Many British citizens are married to
Ukraine citizens and have children born in Ukraine. Under EU law, British
citizens and their non-EU spouse/family can live anywhere within the EU, except
their country of citizenship/origin. Therefore they are denied entry to the
United Kingdom. These British citizens and their families are now living in EU
countries and trying to make a new life after leaving behind their homes and
businesses in Ukraine. Some British citizens and their families are still
stranded in Ukraine.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These families are refugees and cannot seek any help from
the British Embassy in Ukraine. Under UK laws, a British citizen who intends to
bring their non-EU spouse/family to the UK must prove to be in employment or
have a business with a minimum income of GBP 18,6000 per annum and much more in
the case of a family. In order to obtain a spouse visa, the British citizen
must first show they are 'settled' in the UK before they can make an
application for their spouse/family to join them.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Many of these British citizens have been living in Ukraine
for many years prior to the war and simply wish to enter the UK with their
spouse and family to start a new life.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trying to obtain a simple tourist visa for their spouse to
enter the UK is also difficult. The application process is not easy and always
involves the payment of a fee which is non-refundable if the application is
refused.<o:p></o:p></div>
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These British citizens and their families need help.<o:p></o:p></div>
</pre>
<pre class="linkify" id="post-body" style="background: none rgb(248, 246, 247); border-radius: 4px; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: LinotypeUnivers-330Light; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.8571434020996px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-break: normal; word-wrap: break-word;">See: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/britishcitizensandtheirfamilies" target="_blank">https://www.facebook.com/britishcitizensandtheirfamilies</a></pre>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-56678595178127226112015-05-03T09:06:00.000+03:002015-05-03T09:06:21.414+03:00Victory Day 2015 - What Victory?This coming week we will witness celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the end of the 2nd World War (aka Great Patriotic War) The war ended on 8 May 1945. Victory Day in Europe is celebrated in many countries but has always been a major event for FSU (Former Soviet Union) countries). Celebrations usually take place on 9th May each year and this year the Russian Federation will display its so called power with large display in Moscow. The Russians as always will celebrate the defeat of fascism.<br />
<br />
There is no doubt that the army of the SOVIET UNION (not just the Russians) played a major part in the defeat on Nazi Germany. The SU army got to Berlin ahead of the British and the Americans. <br />
<br />
During the past year many of us have witnessed the rise of fascism again in the Russian Federation.<br />
Try telling a Ukrainian citizen that fascism has been defeated and they will no doubt laugh and point you in the direction of Moscow. The next victory that many of us are looking forward to is the removal of the Putin Regime from Russia.<br />
<br />
I remember a cartoon produced by the Kyiv Post one year which showed a 'Soviet Union' pensioner begging on the street and along comes a smartly dressed healthy looking German pensioner of the same age who kindly donates a large handout to the beggar. Made me think about what victory?<br />
<br />
I'm convinced that the state of a country can be judged by two important measures. First, the state of the country's medical and health system and how it takes care of people and second, how it takes care of pensioners. Unfortunately it is well known that pensioners in the FSU receive a financial pension that can only be described as a pittance and barely enough to survive on each month. The majority of pensioners can only live as a result of support from their families.<br />
<br />
However, German state pensioners receive one of the highest financial pensions in the world.<br />
(See chart)<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4T6EWb00EYA/VUW6cQHWOwI/AAAAAAAAAFs/hp--WR3hKnI/s1600/pension-table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4T6EWb00EYA/VUW6cQHWOwI/AAAAAAAAAFs/hp--WR3hKnI/s1600/pension-table.png" height="234" width="320" /></a></div>
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What victory you may be thinking?</div>
<br />Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-24862568950746861892015-03-25T14:08:00.000+02:002015-03-25T14:08:17.966+02:00Corruption in UkraineToday the government made an open display of what happens to government officials suspected of corruption.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212629; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px;">Senior Ukrainian state official Serhiy Bochkovskiy has been arrested during today's session of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers. Bochkovskiy is accused of corruption and embezzlement connected to the procurement of fuels and lubricants for the State Emergency Service. Bochkovskiy's first deputy Vasyl Stoyetskiy was also detained.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212629; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212629; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px;">See the video in the report <a href="http://uatoday.tv/news/senior-ukrainian-official-arrested-on-corruption-charges-during-cabinet-of-ministers-meeting-417511.html" target="_blank">here from Ukraine Today.</a></span>Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-32275510341647792682015-03-18T19:40:00.004+02:002015-03-18T19:40:44.520+02:00UKRAINE TRADING FUND - Now is the time to do business with Ukraine<h1 style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px; margin: 12px 0px; padding-left: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">Ukraine Trading Fund</span></h1>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: larger; line-height: 21.6000003814697px;"><span style="color: red; line-height: 21.6000003814697px;"><strong style="line-height: 21.6000003814697px;">BUY GOODS AND SERVICES FROM SMALL BUSINESSES IN UKRAINE</strong></span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: larger; line-height: 21.6000003814697px;"><strong style="line-height: 21.6000003814697px;">NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO DO BUSINESS WITH UKRAINE</strong></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px; text-align: center;">
The Ukraine Trading Fund helps foreign buyers to find goods and services in Ukraine and enter into successful business contracts. We help foreign buyers to:</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
<strong>1. Source a Ukraine business to supply goods and/or services</strong></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
<strong> 2. Negotiate an agreement</strong></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
<strong> 3. Agree prices and delivery terms</strong></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
<strong> 4. Reduce risk by managing the delivery and payment method</strong></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px; text-align: center;">
To discuss your requirements further please contact:</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px; text-align: center;">
Gerald Bowers – Director – Ukraine Trading Fund</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 15px; text-align: center;">
email: <strong><span style="color: blue;">gerald.bowers@bbcu.com.ua</span></strong></div>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-22951607218332836092015-03-16T09:52:00.003+02:002015-03-16T09:52:20.706+02:00Ukraine - A clash of two mentalities ?Andrey Kurkov the famous Ukrainian writer provides a clear insight into the mentalities of the 'two sides' of Ukraine.<br />
<br />
People involved in business is a good example explained here:<br />
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<b style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">So what really divides Ukraine?</b></div>
</div>
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<i>It’s a clash of two mentalities — the post-Soviet collective mentality, where people lack initiative and are taught to depend on the boss or factory owner for perks. And people who start businesses and take responsibility themselves.</i></div>
</div>
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<i>In Donbass (in the east) you won’t find many small businesses. But if you check the register in Lvov, you’ll see tens of thousands.</i></div>
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He makes a good point. On a visit to Lvov in the far west of Ukraine you will find many small businesses. In the service sector many small cafes and restaurants can be found in Lviv (Lvov) and the owner of each business can be found actively working on the premises and greeting customers. This is pretty much like it is across Europe.</div>
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But.....even in Kyiv the capital city it is still unusual to find a small business in the service sector where the owner(s) have hands on experience. The situation is at its most extreme in the troubled eastern parts of the country. Very few small businesses and very few people involved in entrepreneurial activities. Some will claim it is due to the fear of the local mafia who want to control as much as possible. We all know that the words mafia and local government can be used together in this part of the country.</div>
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Kurkov is right when he explains the 'post soviet collective mentality', where people are fully reliant on the local factory or owners to provide everything for the 'workers'. Many in other parts of Ukraine will gladly comment that ''Those people in the east think we owe them a living''.</div>
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On a positive note, small businesses in many parts of Ukraine (owner managed) are desperate to find new customers both local and foreign. We must do all we can to help them.</div>
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You can read the Kurkov interview<a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/03/15/in-ukraine-a-clash-of-two-mentalities.html" target="_blank"> here</a></div>
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Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-70942098146911524132015-02-24T14:18:00.002+02:002015-02-24T14:18:42.555+02:00Ukraine TomorrowUkraine government has announced the launch of a new TV channel - 'Ukraine Tomorrow'<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212629; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px;">'Ukraine's Minister of Information Policy, Yuriy Stets, has announced the creation of a new channel called Ukraine Tomorrow and a new so-called "i-army" to combat Russian propaganda in an increasingly bitter information war between Moscow and Kyiv.'</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212629; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212629; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px;">The country needs to get the message out to the rest of the world about what is happening in Ukraine and what needs to be done to help put the country back on its feet.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212629; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212629; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px;">See <a href="http://uatoday.tv/politics/ukrainian-government-announces-launch-of-state-television-channel-called-quot-ukraine-tomorrow-quot-411385.html" target="_blank">Ukraine Tomorrow</a></span><br />
<br />
More than ever before Ukraine needs help both in the public and private sectors.Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-21663291149309181242015-02-17T21:00:00.005+02:002015-02-17T21:00:55.699+02:00Crowd Funding Appeal - Ukraine Trading FundSee our appeal here on Indiegogo<br />
<br />
http://igg.me/p/ukraine-trading-fund/x/9925660<br />
<br />
<a href="http://igg.me/p/ukraine-trading-fund/x/9925660" target="_blank">Ukraine Trading Fund</a>Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-83171892142881764202015-02-17T18:04:00.002+02:002015-02-17T18:04:31.027+02:00Ukraine Trading Fund - An Appeal via CrowdfundingNot wanting to 'throw in the towel' on Ukraine, I have decided to try and help small businesses in Ukraine as much as possible.<br />
<br />
As I am currently publishing and editing a magazine in Cyprus, I decided to outsource the printing of the magazine back to Ukraine and discovered the great cost savings to be made by doing business again in Kyiv. I have also appointed a designer and translator to do work on the magazine from their bases in Ukraine.<br />
<br />
So, I got to thinking that many other businesses in other countries can benefit from having a trading relationship with both entrepreneurs and small companies back in Ukraine. We all know that times are very difficult and the economy is in a bad state. But there is so much talent available in Ukraine and so many small businesses eagerly looking for new opportunities. Gone are the days of 'advanced payments' and this has really upset the apple cart as customers are afraid to provide advance payments for fear of loosing out and suppliers are reluctant to provide products/services because they fear non-payment. Plus who knows how the banks will perform. Add to that the fear of Marshall Law being declared and we begin to understand why small businesses are living in fear of survival.<br />
<br />
Therefore, I'm about to launch the <span style="color: red;"><b>UKRAINE TRADING FUND</b></span>, with an appeal for funding via crowd funding methods. The fund will act as a bridge between customer and supplier. As follows:<br />
<br />
1. The Ukraine Trading Fund helps small businesses to find foreign customers.<br />
2. Supplier & Customer agree prices and terms. (Via the Fund)<br />
3. Ukraine Trading Fund provides a guarantee to the supplier.<br />
4. Supplier produces the goods/services<br />
5. Customer completes payment to Ukraine Trading Fund<br />
6. Ukraine Trading Fund completes payment to Supplier.<br />
<br />
This will be a FREE service, provided we can attract the seed funding for one year.<br />
The FUND will act as a buffer/risk fund just in case one of the parties in the planned business deals fails to deliver. But with careful planning the fund should remain in place.<br />
<br />
Further details available via the <a href="http://www.bbcu.com.ua/" target="_blank">BBCU website.</a>Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-26335023491929057262015-02-05T21:30:00.001+02:002015-02-05T21:38:13.374+02:00The State of Ukraine - Time to 'Draw the Curtains'<div class="MsoNormal">
The
situation gets worse each day.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Today, we
see the Hryvnia (UAH) decline to 22 against the USD, and that is the official
bank rate as per the NBU. The black market rate will be approaching 30 to $1.
But dollars and euros are just not available to buy in Ukraine anyhow.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Inflation
will soon be reaching over 30%. Bank lending rates have been increased today to
19.5 %<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The country
has only $6.5 billion in foreign currency reserves.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">(As I was
writing this </span><span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">the Head of the National Bank of Ukraine Valeriy Gontareva</span>
has just announced the rate will now be 25 to the $1)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Many people thought something would change today, when US
Secretary of State John Kerry visited Ukraine. Although the US will provide much
needed financial assistance, they will not provide any military support. Plus
the latest news is that German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande
have also refused to provide any military support.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">So what is the future for Ukraine?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">The IMF will no doubt provide financial support. So the
future for Ukraine would appear to be a country heavily dependent on
international loans and aid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">The international/multi-national companies already in the
country may well continue to try and survive. Plus a whole range of NGO’s,
quasi autonomous foreign funded organisations and the like will continue to
provide employment to a few. Many local businesses have already gone out of
business and the media in Ukraine are not reporting the true situation in the
economy. (They are not reporting anywhere near enough about what is really
going on). Far too many businesses and entrepreneurs do not have any money to
pay taxes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">The lucky winners are those individuals and businesses who
receive income in the form of foreign currency. Those with contracts for IT
support and software development will be OK. Ukrainians and Foreigners who have
agreed to be paid in USD or EURO will be laughing all the way to the bank. But
inflation will catch up with everyone.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">The majority of the people in Ukraine are suffering badly.
Wages are in short supply if payable at all. Many are already in survival mode
and concentrate on providing food for their families on a daily basis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">The economy has only days before it collapses if the IMF does
not provide funding next week.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Therefore, I cannot see the situation improving for many
years. Although I have a business in Ukraine, together with private property,
the time has come for me personally to ‘bring down the curtain’.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">This decision was not taken quickly or easily.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Ukrainians are very good people. The great majority are
honest and hardworking and reliable. They deserve better. They deserve to be
part of Europe. They cannot understand
why we from the ‘west’ have failed them. Why have we not provided them with military
support against an aggressive Russian Federation under the control of Vladimir
Putin. Moreover, the great problem of
corruption still hangs like a millstone around everyone’s neck in Ukraine.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Ukrainians are talented people. They are highly skilled in
many professions. During the early part
of 2014 they set an example to the rest of Europe when they decided to
overthrow a corrupt President and his corrupt government. Unfortunately this proved unacceptable to
Vladimir Putin and as we all know led to the invasion and annexation of Crimea
and the continuing invasion into Eastern Ukraine.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">I sincerely hope and pray that one day in the not too distant
future the people of Ukraine can live in a peaceful and calm civilised society
aligned to true Western European values.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Gerald Bowers<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #252525; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">5 February 2015</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-55526314313084655602014-12-21T21:01:00.001+02:002014-12-21T21:01:54.589+02:00Year end 2014 and NEW YEAR 2015 in UkraineThe year 2014 has been an eventful year for Ukraine. The Russian invasion of Crimea is still the major problem which unfortunately many western nations appear to have forgotten. The Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine continues.<br />
<br />
Too many media sources continue to report about the 'Ukraine Crisis'. When the facts that should be reported are the 'RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE'.<br />
The Russian President had failed to achieve many of his objectives in Ukraine. But one objective that has been achieved is the destruction of the economy of Ukraine.<br />
<br />
Ukraine is suffering. The country needs help from the west. We all hope that 2015 will bring better fortunes for Ukraine.<br />
<br />
However, one of the biggest problems that still plagues Ukraine is the disease known as 'corruption'.<br />
Even with a new President and new Government in place, the old habits of corruption remain.<br />
<br />
BUT...the only people that can STOP this deep seated corruption in Ukraine is in fact the PEOPLE of Ukraine. If only they would just STOP paying bribes to state officials and other people holding out their hands for bribes, the problem could be tackled.<br />
<br />
My message for the people in Ukraine at this year end is ''PLEASE STOP PAYING BRIBES'<br />
A brighter future awaits the country in 2015, if you the people will stop paying bribes to state officials and others. JUST STOP DOING IT.Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-75052297523948894442014-12-06T12:57:00.001+02:002014-12-06T12:57:10.949+02:00Ukraine needs to get serious about Foreign InvestorsIn these hard times for the country, one would have thought that Ukraine would be welcoming foreign investors with open arms. Oh no.<br />
<br />
The BBCU has a long track record of helping foreign companies in Ukraine. Admittedly these are not all multi-million dollar enterprises but they are all investors, where non-residents are bringing their own money to Ukraine to establish new businesses or to complete a trade agreement with a Ukraine based company. Naturally both include some foreign nationals working in Ukraine. Therefore they need a work permit and residents permits to stay here.<br />
<br />
All of these foreign 'directors/managers' create local jobs and start to employ Ukrainian nationals.<br />
This is want the country needs.<br />
<br />
But try telling this to the decision makers at the Kyiv Employment Centre who are responsible for processing the vast amounts of paperwork we submit for each work permit for foreigners to work and develop their businesses here in Ukraine. If there is an excuse to delay or reject an application they are sure to find it. THINGS HAVE NOT CHANGED IN UKRAINE. In fact they might have got worse.<br />
<br />
One of our client companies has already invested millions of dollars in to Ukraine over the past few years but still needs to bring nationals from its own country to provide training to local employees and help develop the business. But the process for obtaining work permits for this client is proving a major challenge with the 'forces of bureaucracy' in the Kyiv Employment Centre.<br />
<br />
These foreign nationals are NOT displacing jobs from locals. Moreover, they are actually helping to create more jobs. The ONLY help these foreign companies need from the government of Ukraine is a few pieces of paper (ie work permits) to help investment to continue. Is that too much to ask?<br />
<br />
Before anyone asks....we never pay bribes. :) Maybe here is the reason?Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-61905073759175126132014-11-21T09:20:00.002+02:002014-11-21T09:20:19.483+02:00Ukraine - One year on (21st November)Today it is one year since the start of the events that led to the 'Revolution' in Ukraine.<br />
<br />
Who would have thought that it would lead to the country being at war with Russia?<br />
<br />
The economy is weaker than ever. It will be very difficult to attract genuine foreign investors to Ukraine.<br />
<br />
Is the country set on a course of surviving from hands outs from the EU, IMF and others?<br />
<br />
Andrey Kurkov on the BBC web site says:<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; clear: left; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helmet, Freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 1.077em; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 18px; padding: 0px; text-rendering: auto;">
It is unclear how the current chapter of Ukrainian history will end. I remain optimistic in spite of the pain I feel remembering those who died in the battle for a new Ukraine and those who are still dying and risking their lives on the Donbas frontline.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; clear: left; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helmet, Freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 1.077em; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 18px; padding: 0px; text-rendering: auto;">
I do believe Ukraine will withstand it all and will maintain her independence and that the Ukrainian people will hold on to their desire to live in a civilised state cleared of a corrupt elite and corrupt judiciary.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; clear: left; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helmet, Freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 1.077em; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 18px; padding: 0px; text-rendering: auto;">
But without the European Union's help, Ukraine will not be able to achieve this. Not because the Ukrainians lack determination, but because beside Ukraine stands a Russia which needs Ukraine to remain as it was under Yanukovych and other presidents - weak, passive and corrupt.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; clear: left; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helmet, Freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 1.077em; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 18px; padding: 0px; text-rendering: auto;">
See the article <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30131108" target="_blank">here</a></div>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-3961320861539158242014-11-10T19:14:00.000+02:002014-11-10T19:14:13.101+02:00Ukraine Currency CollapseAlthough many people are commenting on the collapse of the Russian ruble, they should be very concerned about the Ukraine Hrvynia.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The currency has devalued by over 47 percent since the start of the year. Exchange rates today stood at:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
UAH/USD - 15.50</div>
<div>
UAH/EUR - 19.00</div>
<div>
UAH/GBP - 24.00</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But I'm sure it might have changed while I was writing this.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The NBU (National Bank of Ukraine) claimed today that the Hryvnia will not go any weaker than 16.00 to the USD. I would not gamble on it.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
For those of us in business who need to purchase foreign currency for transactions it is beyond any joke.</div>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-76696463856345240652014-11-05T09:08:00.002+02:002014-11-05T09:08:34.974+02:00Corruption in Ukraine ContinuesThe owner of the Kyiv Post in Ukraine, Mohammad Zahoor recently wrote an article that appeared in the FT on the continuing problem of corruption in Ukraine.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I agree with his comments. Corruption is very deeply seated in both the public and private sectors in Ukraine. Far too many government officials (state employees) carry too much power and use it to extract financial gain from both individuals and businesses.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
BUT.........I blame the people, the general public and business owners for continuing to support the corrupt system in Ukraine. Although many will claim they have no choice but to pay bribes or their businesses will suffer if they do not give in to demands from corrupt officials, it is THEY who maintain the system.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If the people of Ukraine really want to bring about CHANGE in the country and stop all this crazy corruption THEY THE PEOPLE can do it, just like they came out onto the streets in 2013 to start demanding change. They can do it again.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Moreover, the only thing people need to do to stop corruption is to STOP PAYING any bribes to government officials or anyone in the private sector. STOP giving money to police officers when they stop you for a so called speeding offence. STOP paying bribes to junior government employees to 'help you make things easier'. STOP paying anything to those higher up. No matter how much they may claim they will make your life difficult if you do not pay. YOU can make their life difficult by reporting them.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The days of being afraid are over. My advice to the people of Ukraine is to stand up and be counted once again and put a stop to all this continuing problem of corruption that is holding the country back from moving forward.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
See the <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/11/04/guest-post-ukraine-has-done-nothing-to-tackle-corruption-it-must-learn-from-georgia/" target="_blank">FT article here</a></div>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-60836061209656920112014-10-25T09:48:00.001+03:002014-10-25T09:48:13.317+03:00Ukraine Elections - 26th October 2014<div class="MsoNormal">
On Sunday 26<sup>th</sup> October 2014, Ukrainians will have
another opportunity to vote and choose which political parties will be responsible
for the management of the country. Although Ukraine still maintains an unusual
system of elections via a ‘party list’ system mixed with other systems, it is
an opportunity for the people to choose the future direction of Ukraine.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The majority of the population have already decided that
they wish to see a free and democratic country develop along a ‘Western
European’ system.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ukraine will need another 5-10 years to rebuild its economy
and develop a system of governance and for its politicians to demonstrate that
they can put people first and eventually cast off the old methods of soviet era
bureaucracy, systemic corruption and the stigma of selfish greed among the so
called elite. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The time has arrived for fresh, young albeit inexperienced
people to start making decisions that will benefit the population as a whole. Let’s all hope that we will see many new
faces appearing in the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) next week.<o:p></o:p></div>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-65075818546986549502014-10-16T13:45:00.003+03:002014-10-16T13:47:45.331+03:00The People of UkraineI think this simple short video explains how Ukrainians feel about their country.<br />
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<a href="http://youtu.be/qes_x_6AzQ0" target="_blank">Where is Ukraine?</a>Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-84356154297139178682014-09-01T16:39:00.003+03:002014-09-01T16:42:03.448+03:00<div class="yiv7084536737MsoNormal" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26260" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, 'Lucida Grande', sans-serif; font-size: 13px; padding: 0px;">
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<span style="font-weight: 700;"></span><span style="font-weight: 700;">Timothy Ash from Standard Bank in London provides an excellent summary of the current situation in Ukraine. Maybe he should give up the day job and become a full time journalist.</span></div>
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<span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26266" style="font-weight: 700;">Commentary & Analysis, Timothy Ash, Standard Bank, London, UK, Mon, 1st Sept, 2014 </span></div>
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<span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26271" style="font-weight: 700;"><span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26270" style="font-size: medium;">LONDON </span></span>---- I am amazed by the generally poor media & business commentary around Ukraine/Russia relations, which often belies a fundamental lack of understanding of the issues – maybe the demands of 24/7 news drives that to an extent. This is also apparent from commentary from high level Western diplomats and political leaders – either they do not understand, or would rather not understand the realities with respect to the Ukraine crisis.<br />
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So let’s try and make this as simple as possible.<br />
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Let’s start at the beginning, or at least for most of the recent focus on Ukraine. And therein, the Maydan protests are the obvious starting point – we could go back to the Vilnius process, but that’s possibly getting a bit too deep for a simplified analysis.<br />
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Maydan earlier in the year was about a bulk of Ukrainians’ desire to have a European perspective – to live by common European values, not necessary EU or Nato membership at that point of time. It was more about things like democracy, human rights, rule of law, protection of property rights, but really about living in a normal European country.</div>
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And they felt that the incumbent Yanukovych administration was not willing or able to deliver on that, arguably because of the anchor of too close ties to Russia. Only by securing an EU perspective did they think that their country could be reformed towards European core values, and bringing real improvements in their way of life.<br />
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Evidently Moscow finds the whole Maydan thing a threat to its model of development and security – and is particularly nervous about any NATO aspirations of Ukraine. Many Russians have also never really accepted that Ukraine is an independent country (albeit it has been fully independent for 23 years now) or indeed that Ukrainians are a different and distinct ethnic group – indeed, seeing the collapse of the USSR in 1991 as a mistake, at least as it resulted in the “mistake” of bringing Ukrainian independence.</div>
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<span style="color: navy; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">BULK OF UKRAINE'S POPULATION WANT A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE</span></span>So the gist of it is that the bulk of Ukraine’s population want a European perspective, and to finally break away from domination by Russia, and Russia wants to stop this process, and through the recent advent of the CIS/Eurasian Union to actually pull Ukraine closer in terms of economic and political integration.<br />
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Whether it was security concerns or a desire to stall/destabilise Ukraine’s momentum towards Europe, Russia moved to annex Crimea back in March, and then actively promoted/supported separatist movements in South-East Ukraine – in the event, these only secured traction in two further oblasts/regions of Ukraine, i.e. Donetsk and Luhansk, collectively known as ‘the Donbas’ – Ukraine’s industrial heartland.</div>
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Note prior to the on-set of separatist demonstrations and unrest in April, there was scant evidence in Ukraine of any particular separatist cause/movement – opinion polls also showed 90%+ support across Ukraine for an independent Ukraine, and only around one-third support even in Donetsk for the separatist cause, with a majority still favouring an independent Ukraine. Opinion polls showed no oblast in Ukraine had majority support for joining Russia – and by a large margin, perhaps with the exception of Crimea.<br />
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In any event protests and conflict broke out in Donetsk and Luhansk, and these evolved into a war to all intents and purposes, with large scale casualties now on all sides. Throughout there have been strong indications that arms/fighters have been supplied across the border from Russia – separatist leaders have suggested at least 4,000 of the 10-15,000 separatist fighters are of Russian origin (either retired Russian soldiers, or soldiers “on leave”).</div>
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The Ukrainian military eventually regrouped, and managed to deploy around 50,000 troops to Donbas, eventually seeing significant gains on the ground – which up to a week or so ago laid the prospect that unless Russia escalated with the use of more formal troop deployments to Ukraine, that the separatist cause in Donbas would whither away. This led to some debate about whether Russia had achieved its objectives in Ukraine through the annexation of Crimea – and the destabilisation of Donbas, sufficient to stall/slow Ukraine’s drive to EU/NATO membership.</div>
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The assumption by some therein was that Moscow would assume that it had sowed sufficient uncertainty in the minds of Western leaders for them in effect to veto Ukraine's future NATO/EU membership. This charitable interpretation of Russian strategy assumed a benign de-escalation by Russia.</div>
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<span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="color: navy; font-size: medium;">EVENTS ON THE GROUND IN RECENT DAYS NOW APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED THE ABOVE</span></span>Events on the ground in recent days now appear to have changed the above. In particular, the government in Kyiv and NATO have signalled much larger and more direct Russian intervention in fighting in Donbas, which seems to have slowed/reversed the advances of the Ukrainian military – even suggesting a broadening of the conflict south towards the industrial port city of Mariupol.<br />
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The message now from the most recent Russian escalation (“invasion” or “incursion”) is that Moscow has made clear that it is unwilling to allow the defeat of the separatist cause in Donbas, and is willing to further escalate, by pumping yet more arms/kit into the conflict.</div>
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Moscow’s aim is seemingly (and perhaps now clearly) to force a military stalemate on the ground whereby a large swathe of Ukrainian territory – and important territory, given that it is Donbas – is beyond the reach of the Ukrainian government. Their assumption is that this will force the government in Kyiv, and the West, back to the negotiating table to negotiate over the long term future of Ukraine – and therein the agenda for Russia is No NATO, No EU and No Maydan (Moscow wants a broader coalition in office in Kyiv, more amenable to representing its views).</div>
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To restate, for Russia this is not really about backing the separatist cause in Ukraine, it is about shaping the long term future of the whole of Ukraine, and Ukraine’s geopolitical, economic and strategic orientation back east, and certainly away from the West. Indeed, if Russia was doing all this really in support of the minority rights in Ukraine it would surely have rallied to the cause of minorities in Russia itself – and recent history therein has been about pulling back from a Federalist agenda/model.</div>
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<span style="color: navy; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">RUSSIA HAS PUT THE BALL BACK IN THE COURT OF THE WEST/KYIV BY ITS RECENT ACTIONS</span></span>In effect Russia has put the ball back in the court of the West/Kyiv by its recent actions in Ukraine. Herein the Poroshenko administration now faces a number of choices, with hugely difficult consequences and calculations to be made:<br />
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<span style="color: navy; font-size: large;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">FIRST,</span></span> First, negotiate a ceasefire with separatists and their backers in Moscow, and secure a longer term agreement which would require assurances of a pull back from Western orientation, and hence assurances of No Nato or EU membership for Ukraine. Moscow will also likely demand a Federal constitution to be enacted in Ukraine, with much more power decentralised to the regions, but whereby the regions have veto rights over key decisions at the national level, e.g. covering NATO and EU membership.</div>
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In effect by so-doing Kyiv would secure the return of Donbas to its de-jure (if not necessarily de-facto, as per Crimea) administrative “control”. This would likely make short term economic development/recovery easier. However, the price would likely be a return to the model of development prior to Maydan – of autarchic oligarchic elites plundering the population and the economy not really going anywhere fast, but this would rather be a model for stagnation and decline.</div>
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All the above would be difficult for any Ukrainian government to sell to the people of the Maydan, or indeed the wider population, which now appears to have changed through the current conflict to become much more ardent in support of Ukrainian independence, and the Western orientation.</div>
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Therein note that support for NATO membership for Ukraine, which was always low, pre-Maydan (single digits) is now in a majority, and support for the EU is now approaching two-thirds. Thus, it seems that delivering on Russia’s “terms” might just result in the destabilisation of the domestic political situation in Ukraine itself. Such a scenario buys short term peace, but ultimately results in long term failure for Ukraine.<br />
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I find the chances of the above at this stage to be fairly low – maybe 10-15%.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="color: navy;">SECOND</span></span> ----</span> Second, try and pursue a military solution. This would require re-arming, and heavy investment in the Ukrainian military, but the plan would be to raise the stakes and cost for Russia of its continued stay in Donbas. This might also suggest a long-running conflict, with huge human and economic costs for both sides.</div>
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For Ukraine, it also might imply an uncertain outcome, as Ukraine could lose such a conflict with Russia, and hence lose even more territory than currently occupied by Russian troops and separatists. But the strategy would be to ramp up the cost to Russia that it blinks first and backs-off – Ukraine could become Putin’s Afghanistan, and hence ultimately the source of his own decline.<br />
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The chances of the second scenario are perhaps 35-40%.<br />
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<span style="color: navy; font-size: large;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">THIRD ----</span></span> Third, the authorities in Kyiv could simply accept the status quo in Donbas and Crimea, but reach a temporary ceasefire with Russia and the separatists, but without giving up on its Western orientation. In effect the result would be a frozen conflict scenario, akin to that in Trans-dniestr, Abhazia, South Ossetia or even Nagorno-Karabakh or Northern Cyprus. The government in Kyiv would try as best to get on with the task of rebuilding the rest of the economy, and delivering on the IMF reform agenda.</div>
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They would have the advantage therein of a strong, and re-invigorated feeling of national identity on the part of the bulk of the population, and willingness to sacrifice for the national good and to ensure independence and security. The problem with this strategy is though rebuilding and recovery will be acutely difficult with Donbas remaining out of the control of Kyiv, as the region accounts for 13-18% of GDP and around 27% of industrial output.</div>
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There is nothing to suggest that oligarchs would pump money back into the Donbas economy with such uncertainty over its long term future – similar in many respects to the problems currently besetting Crimea. We would also add that this also assumes that Moscow opts not to further escalate – to try and make life even more difficult for the government in Kyiv, and to try and ensure the failure of the Maydan administration and the re-orientation of Ukraine back eastwards.</div>
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The assumption has to be that Russia will still go out of its way to make life difficult – via trade disruptions, sanctions, blockades, and using the energy and default card via the 2015 Russian “bail-bonds”. Ukraine’s only hope in this latter regard would be massive financial support/backing from the West – to make up for the loss of Donbas, and this would require something much larger than the existing USD17bn IMF programme – there has been talk of a “Marshall Plan for Ukraine”, albeit things therein seem to be moving very slowly.</div>
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In effect though the West needs to give the government in Kyiv enough assurances that its Western orientation will be supported both through real progress in technical preparations connected to NATO/EU membership, and cash, to ensure the survival of the Maydan administration.<br />
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I would probably attach a similar probability to the third as to the second scenarios.<br />
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The balance hence would be any other scenarios, of which I am sure there are many.<br />
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<span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="color: navy; font-size: medium;">Disclaimer:</span></span> This material is non-independent research. Non-independent research is a "marketing communication". The above commentary represents a personal view, is not investment advice or Standard Bank research, but may contain extracts from published research.</div>
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<span style="color: navy; font-size: large;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">A FEW UPDATED THOUGHTS ON DEVELOPMENTS IN UKRAINE</span></span></div>
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<span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26410" style="font-weight: 700;">Commentary & Analysis, Timothy Ash, Standard Bank, London, UK, Sun, Aug 31, 2014</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;">LONDON</span>
---- Obviously late last week the crisis in Ukraine took yet another turn for
the worse, with the government in Kyiv and NATO claiming increased Russian
intervention in SE Ukraine. The reports suggested more open and substantive
Russian involvement on the side of separatists, with the latter seemingly
opening another front to the South of Donetsk and Luhansk, on the approaches to
the large industrial and port city of Mariupol. </div>
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The intervention of more
substantive Russian forces appears to have stemmed the tide of Ukrainian
military victories which had appeared in the weeks prior to be offering the
prospect that Ukrainian forces could clear Donbas and re-secure Ukraine's
borders thereby bringing a speedy end to the conflict.</div>
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What we have perhaps
learned from the separatist assault towards Mariupol, and indeed Putin's own new
statements of support for Novorossiya, is that Russia is not content with
letting the separatist cause die a death in Donetsk and Luhansk as some had
claimed - remember some had claimed that changes in the leadership of the
separatists in recent weeks indicated preparation for perhaps a withdrawal by
Russia. </div>
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<span style="color: navy; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">RUSSIA'S STRATEGY IS MUCH
CLEARER</span></span></div>
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It now seems much clearer
that Russia's strategy is not just about Crimea, but rather and in addition
perhaps to create a frozen conflict on the ground in Donbas. Such a scenario
creates scope either for enlargement of Russia's borders, partially through the
concept of Novorossiya, or to deliver on Russia's broader objectives of
preventing Ukraine's Western orientation partially by destabilising Ukraine
through military intervention.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Clearly Putin is not
willing to accept defeat in Ukraine, and has constantly proven his willingness
to raise the stakes, through ever greater intervention and escalation.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Note that the above
suggests the scenario playing out of further Russian intervention in Ukraine -
as we presented in our own scenarios analysis from a few weeks back.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Interestingly, the Russian
media focused on an inteverview given by Putin this weekend, whereupon he hinted
that talks needed to be held over potential "statehood" for SE Ukraine. If true
this would be a notable development, and further strain relations between Russia
and Ukraine/the West. </div>
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</div>
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Albeit not that Putin's
press secretary has subsequently denied that Putin meant the breakaway of SE
Ukraine from Ukraine proper, albeit after the annexation of Crimea, Ukraine and
the West will no doubt be cautious in interpretating Putin and Russia's
statements in this regard. </div>
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</div>
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Perhaps this was all meant
as a subliminal warning as to what could happen if Russian interests were not
taken on board in re shaping Ukraine's future. That is this was meant to improve
Russia's negotiating position in any subsequent peace talks.</div>
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</div>
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<span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26424" style="color: navy; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26423" style="font-weight: 700;">HUGE DILEMMAS FOR POROSHENKO AND THE
WEST</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><br /></div>
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The above creates huge
dilemmas for both the Poroshenko administration in Kyiv but also the West, in
terms of how to counter this new and present danger/threat from Russia.</div>
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<br /></div>
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For Poroshenko the problem
is a frozen conflict in Donbas arguably fundamentally threatens the durability
and sustainability of an independent Ukraine. Donbas is critically important to
the Ukrainian economy - accounting for anywhere between 13% and 18% of GDP, and
containing some major industrial and transport infrastructure, including steel
plants, oil refineries and coal mines. </div>
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Arguably this is why
Russia has focused its intervention in Donbas, as it assumes that it will force
Kyiv back to the negotiating table with Moscow to deliver on its broader
strategic objectives of No NATO, No EU and No reform minded Maydan
administration. </div>
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Therein is the huge
dilemma for Poroshenko as the past year has arguably fundamentally changed
Ukraine, with Maydan, the loss of many lives during the ousting of the
Yanukovych regime, and now several thousand killed in the conflict in SE
Ukraine, opinion in the country has now decisively turned away from Russia, and
towards Europe. </div>
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</div>
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<span style="color: navy; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">NATO MEMBERSHIP UNLIKELY</span></span></div>
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</div>
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By way of example, on the
critical issue of NATO membership, while before the outbreak of the Maydan
protests, and the unrest in SE Ukraine, popular support for Ukraine's NATO
membership was in single digits, recent opinion polls now show majority support.
</div>
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Therein the Ukrainian
government is currently pushing thru legislation facilitating a drive for NATO
membership - even though NATO itself is likely now to be reluctant to accept
Ukraine as a member as long as Russia is opposed. </div>
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Simply put, how can a
Poroshenko presidency compromise on such key tenets of popular thinking now in
Ukraine, as EU/NATO membership and a broader reform agenda. Compromise is also
made that much more difficult by the onset of the campaign for early
parliamentary elections set for October 26. </div>
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Those same elections are
expected to bring a large majority for Ukrainian statehood parties, and those
likely opposed to any move back away from a Westwards orientation.</div>
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The best perhaps that can
now be hoped for is for some form of temporary ceasefire on the ground, which
halts the fighting but which unlikely addresses the underlying issues. Donbas
would remain beyond the reach of the administration in Kyiv, which would add
deadweight to an already hugely challenging economic policy challenge - and
piecemeal support therein from the West. </div>
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Ukraine would, meanwhile,
likely focus on re-armament, and for Russia would increasingly pose an even
greater security threat - in effect the two states would likely remain daggers
drawn, with the border resembling more that between Turkey and Greece, or
Armenia and Azerbaijan. </div>
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</div>
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<span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26438" style="color: navy; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26437" style="font-weight: 700;">RUSSIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND MAKE LIFE
DIFFICULT FOR UKRAINE</span></span></div>
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Russia will, meanwhile,
continue to try and make life difficult for Ukraine by imposing trade
restrictions and in effect embarking on a trade war with Ukraine. The danger of
a larger, full blown conflict between the two sides will likely remain ever
present.</div>
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The more immediate focus
will be various efforts to broker some sort of ceasefire and peace agreement.
</div>
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Poroshenko has himself
promised to reveal some sort of peace plan over the next week, albeit this is
unlikely to be that different from plans already tabled, and including the offer
of some decentralisation of powers to Donbas (but stopping short of
Federalisation which remains acutely unpopular in Ukraine), on the proviso that
separatists lay down their arms, foreign fighters depart and the OSCE assumes
monitoring over the long Ukraine-Russia border. </div>
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We doubt that Russia will
accept anything which hinders its ability to re supply separatists in SE
Ukraine, and indeed the de facto control of territory already in the hands of
separatists.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The EU has, meanwhile,
given itself one week to decide on another round of sanctions to be rolled out
against Russia - presumably in coordination with the US. The assumption is that
the EU wants to give negotiations to secure some form of ceasefire/peace in the
Russo-Ukraine conflict a further chance - albeit numerous efforts/rounds of
talks over the past 10 months to try and resolve the on-going crisis have
achieved very little. </div>
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</div>
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The one week delay
probably says more of the weak state of Europe and the divisions therein over
its approach towards Russia, than the chances of some form of peace agreement
being reached within the week.</div>
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</div>
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<span style="color: navy; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">MANY EUROPEAN LEADERS ARE CLEARLY DESPERATE TO
AVOID ROLLING OUT FURTHER SANCTIONS</span></span></div>
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</div>
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Many European
leaders are clearly desperate to avoid rolling out further sanctions, for fear
of damaging their own business interests and relations with Russia - personal
and professional. Therein it is still fairly remarkable that both the EU and the
US have failed to adequately describe events on the ground as a Russian
invasion, but prefer instead to use the term "incursion". </div>
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</div>
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The difference is
obviously in the assumption as to the timeframe for Russian intervention -
invasion implies something large in scale and permanent, incursion is rather
smaller in scale and temporary. That said there is little to suggest that
Russia's intervention in Ukraine is temporary, and as events surrounding Crimea,
Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Trans-Dniestr have proven, such interventions can
quickly become permanent when it comes to Russia's recent interventions in the
near abroad - there is now a well honed script for these.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Our assumption still is
that reaching a permanent peace deal will be acutely difficult still. And this
still suggests the likelihood of yet more Western sanctions iterations, however
weak and feeble these may end up being. Suffice to say that we do not expect the
"sanctions malaise" which currently hangs over Russian markets or the economy to
lift that soon. </div>
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<br /></div>
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What form of sanctions can
we expect? Well the problem is still that securing unanimity within the EU for
any such sanctions is painfully difficult, with the pace/scope only really
driven by the weakest link - and there are many. </div>
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</div>
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Many might still argue
that it is incredible how soft and feeble existing sanctions have been despite
the remarkable events we have seen on the ground, including the Russian
annexation of Crimea (which trampled over international agreements), the downing
of an international airliner, the loss of well over 2,500 lives in the conflict
to date (including the loss of Russian troops this figure could perhaps be much
higher than this), and clear evidence of a direct Russian invasion/incursion
into Ukrainian sovereign territory. </div>
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</div>
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<span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26456" style="color: navy; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26455" style="font-weight: 700;">LIKELY EXPECT MORE RUSSIAN INDIVIDUALS AND
CORPORATES TO BE SANCTIONED</span></span></div>
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We can likely expect more
Russian individuals and corporates to be sanctioned, and this time perhaps
deeper sanctions on arms trade with Russia - there has also been hints of
restrictions on SWIFT transactions with Russia, albeit it may yet be too early
for such action to be rolled out.</div>
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<br /></div>
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NATO is, meanwhile,
meeting on September 3 in Wales - the English and Welsh fought for centuries
despite also having many common roots, which is hardly auspicious in terms of
the current Russo-Ukraine conflict. Ukraine is probably hopeful of some signal
of its potential membership, albeit I would expect NATO members to hold back
from this at this stage for fear of further infuriating Russia. </div>
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NATO also seems likely to
hold back from agreeing to directly arm Ukraine - albeit there is nothing to
stop individual NATO and EU member states deciding to increase unilaterally
their own level of military backing for Kyiv. NATO is likely to make some strong
statements of disappointment with Russia's actions in Ukraine - talk if cheap
after all - and perhaps push forward preparations for reinforcing members
bordering Russia in the event of more direct and specific threats
appearing.</div>
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<br /></div>
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In summary, the West is
struggling to come to terms with a new and more aggressive Russia. Many would
rather ignore the facts on the ground, as they face difficult choices and risk
damaging business interests. </div>
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</div>
<div class="yiv7084536737rte-style-maintainer" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26465" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, 'Lucida Grande', sans-serif; font-size: small; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26464" style="color: navy; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><span id="yui_3_16_0_1_1409567614096_26463" style="font-weight: 700;">MANY IN THE WEST WOULD PREFER THE GOVERNMENT IN
KYIV TO APPEASE MOSCOW</span></span></div>
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Many in the West would
prefer the government in Kyiv to appease Moscow, but the problem therein is
selling any such scenario to the people of Ukraine who now more than ever appear
set on their Westward course, and away from Russia. </div>
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</div>
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Large numbers of lives
have been lost and what we are perhaps seeing still is the birth of a Ukrainian
nation. Ukrainians seem willing to fight in defence of their country and, if
this is added to Russia's determination to keep a tight grip on Ukraine, this
all bodes ill still for the future.</div>
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<br />
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NOTE:
The above commentary represents a personal view, is not investment advice or Standard Bank research, but may contain extracts from published research.</div>
</div>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-72914522632928732422014-08-26T13:28:00.000+03:002014-08-26T13:28:29.097+03:00The Battle for Cyprus<div class="MsoNormal">
The island of Cyprus is reliant on tourism which represents
approximately 12% of GDP. The latest
figures from the Cyprus state statistical service shows a 22.6% increase in the
number of visitors from Russia in July 2014. Over 116582 Russians visited the
island compared to 96641 in July 2013.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There was a small dip in the number of visitors from Britain
but still the largest number at 127152 for July 2014 compared to 132566 in July
2013.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The total figures for the first seven months of this year
are: British 478882, Russians 372457, Sweden 57676 plus many tourists from
other countries around the world. During 2013 Cyprus welcomed 2.4 million
visitors and it looks like 2014 will see an increase on the previous year.
Tourism income brings in around €2.0 Billion per year.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cyprus is still seen an an ideal location for those who are
seeking to purchase a holiday home or retirement or investment property. <o:p></o:p></div>
Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7436653703495583713.post-84739053780725784242014-08-12T23:13:00.000+03:002014-08-12T23:13:01.711+03:00Ukraine - Could it get any worse?It would be fair to say the business environment in Ukraine is well and truly ****ed.<br />
<br />
Even before the Russians started trying to dismember parts of Ukraine the country was in a mess.<br />
Unemployment is high. Inflation is out of control.<br />
Public finances are in a mess. Although we now know that Yanukovych stole billions, it is doubtful if any of the stolen money, even when found will find its way back to Ukraine.<br />
The government is in a mess. The public sector remains part of the old soviet system of doing things, or usually the system of not doing anything. Always easier to say NO just in case.<br />
The parliament is still made up of members from the old regime and old way of doing things for their own personal gain. God forbid they would think about doing anything for the people of the country.<br />
<br />
Businesses are not doing much and their employees are going unpaid for many months.<br />
<br />
Oh...and the currency has gone into steep decline. So, not a good environment for doing business in Ukraine.<br />
<br />
The level of corruption is probably a little less than what it was under the old regime. We hope.<br />
Many commentators claim that the black economy in Ukraine is over 60 percent.<br />
There is still a massive hole in the country's tax collection. The road to recovery is going to be a long way.<br />
<br />Gerald Bowershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04931655036845340539noreply@blogger.com0