To say that this year has been difficult for business in
Ukraine would be a great understatement. There are many people who would gladly
sell up their businesses tomorrow and leave the country. But as Ukraine is not
a member of the EU, leaving the country is still difficult. Those who remember
the days of the ‘iron curtain’ where people living in the Soviet Union were not
allowed to mix or meet with ‘westerners’, when people were shot trying to cross
the Berlin Wall from east to west, will appreciate the freedom of movement that
EU citizens enjoy today. Many of these EU countries are former Soviet states.
Ukrainians still need visas to visit EU countries. Many
young professional Ukrainians have made visits to countries like Germany,
France, UK, Austria, Spain and even many new member countries like Poland,
Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary etc. They have witnessed a different and better
way of life in these countries compared to life in Ukraine. Travelling along a
road in Poland for example reminds people just how very bad the roads are back
home in Ukraine. Poland was able to break away from the grip of the ‘soviet
empire’ around the same time as Ukraine gained independence in 1991. The GNI
per capita (2012) in Poland is $12660 compared to just $3500 in Ukraine. The
big question is why? (Admittedly it is estimated that as much as 50% of the
Ukraine economy is in the ‘black economy’.)
Why do these former soviet countries have a much better
lifestyle and higher levels of freedom than Ukraine? Maybe because Ukraine has never broke its
close links with Russia. Maybe because the country has never had any real
democratic leadership. Maybe because…..the list can go on.
The year 2013 just might be the year that ignited the flame
of the people in Ukraine to finally say ‘’Enough, we are tired of living like
this, we demand changes.’’ It could be the start of what takes the country away
from the influence of the Russian Federation once and for all and the country
becomes more aligned with European countries where freedom of speech and the
rule of law are respected.
During 2013 the country was due to sign an Association
Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU. This
agreement would have paved the way to Ukraine becoming a more ‘European style’
nation which one day could have led towards EU membership. Just a few days
before an important ‘summit meeting’ was due to be held in Vilnius, Lithuania
where the President of Ukraine was expected to sign this agreement on behalf of
the nation, he changed his mind. He claimed along with his government that
Ukraine would suffer economic losses if they went ahead with this agreement.
Moreover, the Russian Federation had already made known the consequences
Ukraine would face if it went ahead and signed the agreement with the EU. The Russians had already started to block the
imports of Ukrainian goods and were generally making life difficult for
businesses that have Russian customers. The Russians still wanted Ukraine to
join its own ‘Customs Union’ together with Belarus.
A great sense of disappointment and betrayal was felt
amongst millions of Ukrainians as President Yanukovych had taken away their
hopes of becoming closer to Europe. What happened next was a surprise to many.
Ukrainian people decided to come out and protest against
what they saw as a gross injustice. They were sick and tired already of this
President and a government who clearly showed no concern towards the everyday
life of Ukrainians. The so called leadership were more interested in their own
business interests and their own family fortunes than the interests of the
nation and its people. Government corruption, lies, theft and the use of state
assets for personal gain were just a few of the reasons why people decided they
had had enough of being held back in the 21st century by those in
power and they decided to come out on to the streets of Kyiv and form what is
now known as ‘Euromaidan’.
For the past month the centre of Kyiv has been taken over by
‘The People’. Initially there was no leadership from the official political
opposition and due to the fact that there are three separate parties now
involved the situation of opposition leadership is still unclear. However, one
clear favourite has emerged from the opposition as former heavy weight boxing
world champion Vitali Klitschko, already a member of parliament declared his
intentions to run as a candidate in the Presidential elections in 2015.
The huge amount of people who turned out in the city centre
of Kyiv to show their concerns surprised many. The crowds were even bigger than
during the Orange Revolution in 2004. The people demanded change. They demanded
the resignation of President Yanukovych and his Prime Minister Mykola Azarov.
Many students were active from the very start of
‘Euromaidan’, as young people they know only too well the changes that are
required in Ukraine. Unfortunately the
police in Ukraine (there are many different forms of police in the country) are
notorious for violence and total disregard for human rights. The riot police,
Berkut, clearly demonstrated how they are out of control and caused many many
injuries to peaceful demonstrators. Those injured included journalists and
cameramen from other countries. This led to further outrage not only among demonstrators but throughout Ukraine and the rest of the world who were
watching events unfold on television.
‘Euromaidan’ gained strength and support and it became clear that this
was not something that was going to blow over after a few weeks. It would
appear that this time the Ukrainian people were going to see it all the way
through until their demands was met.
President Yanukovych had been having meetings with the
Russian President – Vladimir Putin. It
was strongly suspected by many that Putin would convince Yanukovych to join the
customs union. It was also suspected that Putin was using threats that
Yanukovych would find difficult to overcome. On 17th December, Yanukovych met
with Putin in Moscow and during the next few days it was announced that the
Russian Federation would buy $15 billion of Ukraine bonds plus a one third
reduction in the price of gas supplied to the country. It was feared by many
that Yanukovych had agreed to many things which he was not disclosing to the
people. Yanukovych had sold out the country to the Russians. Putin declared this was all ‘brotherly’ help
towards a nation which shared its values. To the people of Ukraine it showed
that they were still under the influence of the evil empire. All negotiations
with the EU were halted.
Hopes for 2014
The 2014/5 period will be a clearly defining time for the
future of Ukraine. If ‘Euromaidan’ continues the President and his government
will be in for a hard time. During 2014 Ukraine will experience many more
hardships and uncertainty. Yanukovych will not want to give up his Presidency
before 2015 and he will not agree to early elections.
This period will allow the political opposition to get its
act together. Vitali Klitschko will have a whole year to prepare for his
presidential bid. At the same time the people will have an opportunity to try
and clearly decide what kind of future they want for Ukraine.
Foreign direct investment in Ukraine will probably cease
completely apart from some joint activities with Russia. Why would anyone want
to invest in a country with such a high level of political uncertainty? If
Yanukovych decides not to run for a second term this could be equally as
threatening to the economy as ‘government connected people’ and the oligarchs
connected to him would rape the country of any remaining assets and bribery and
corruption would be even more rampant during the final days.
So far this all sounds very negative for the future of
Ukraine. Well 2014 will be very negative, but at the same time positive. The
negative aspects will be the continual conflict between the people who have
joined ‘Euromaidan’ and the President and his government. The positive aspects
will be the growth in the number of Ukrainian people who join the fight after
they see that the only way forward is for Ukraine to become a free and
democratic country. The main hope for 2014 is that by 2015 the people will have
clearly decided who they want as their leader.
Many people will claim that they cannot wait until 2015.
They want Yanukovych and his government to go now. Unfortunately the law (used
loosely in Ukraine) is on the side of the current regime. There is no legal
reason to hold an election until 2015 and Yanukovych will do all in his power
to ensure he stays in office.
Therefore the year 2014 should be used as a great
opportunity by the opposition to plan and develop clear strategies so that
people can understand ‘The Way Forward’ for Ukraine.
I wish them the very best
of luck.
No comments:
Post a Comment