Ukraine until 2020

One of my friends in Odessa recently wrote an interesting article in his blog about the possible future scenarios for Ukraine as a result of a Chatham House report from early 2011.

The report sets out three possible scenarios for the future of Ukraine. Quote:

The following three scenarios were selected by the panelists on the basis

of their plausibility, distinctiveness, and potential relevance to U.S. foreign

policy:

ONE - Fragmentation from Failed Authoritarianism. Yanukovych overreaches, and the economy falters. These trends excite a diverse array of

responses—rather than unified opposition—and, as the regime enters a

deep crisis of legitimacy, local leaders begin to distance themselves from

the center.

TWO - Consensus Leading to Reform. Backlash against the Yanukovych

administration creates opportunities for a new generation of politicians to

come to power and lead political and economic reform.

THREE - Strategic Authoritarianism. Yanukovych’s administration manages to

meet the expectations of his elite backers and the public for “stability” and

economic growth. He stays in power throughout the decade and enjoys a

considerable amount of legitimacy, both at home and abroad.

Which scenario is most likely?

Well, I tend to agree with my Odessa friend that Scenario THREE - Strategic Authoritarianism

is the most likely future for Ukraine leading up to 2020, the time when President Yanukovych must step down as per the Constitution having complete two terms in office.

My friends blog can be seen here: Odessablog's Blog

The full Chatham House report can be seen here: Chatham House

There are many factual comments in the report which still concern me, namely the fact that

the number of SME's in Ukraine continues to decline along with any influence from business groups representing the SME sectors.